With the Bat-signal still hanging high over the horizon, it’s a foregone conclusion that “The Dark Knight Rises” will repeat as box office champion this weekend after its boisterous $160 million debut. The question really is: how much will “Rises” fall? If it’s anything like “The Dark Knight” it should see a hold in the 50%-range, or around $80 million Bat-bucks.

There is a chance, however, we could see a drop in the 40%-range. The tragedy in Colorado was extremely unprecedented, but draws us in to an interesting discussion--did it affect the box office? We may never know that answer, but just looking at the overall decline of movies across the board last weekend, it certainly seems that way. Although there is no way to truly quantify the monetary losses, I think it’s safe to say “The Dark Knight Rises” was affected financially, possibly upwards of $15 million or so. And I think that was likely most evident in the family demographic or the casual fan department…most of which should return this weekend.  

What happened in Aurora certainly cannot be overlooked or placated. The violence inherent to the “Dark Knight” trilogy may have just been too much for people looking for simple escapism last weekend, considering the reality of what happened. And for potential movie-goers that were on the fence about seeing it in the first place, they may have just skipped it all-together. 

This was a tragedy, one that will no doubt send dark ripples down the aisles of every movie theatre from coast to coast, and the world.  Sadly, because of this event, a dark cloud will hang over “The Dark Knight Rises” throughout its release; however the mending has already begun with outpouring support from community leaders and even our Commander in Chief. Oh, and Batman himself—Christian Bale— showed up to visit victims and their families in what was probably one of the most moving tributes by a movie star in a long time.

Movies are a reflection of our life and times, and hopefully, the fear and sadness this unfortunate event created will not override the joy we take out of watching movies and living our lives.  If it does, those that harbor and create violence will win, and in the end isn’t that what Batman always fights for…to stomp out fear in every dark corner he encounters. Batman, we need you now more than ever.

This has already caused much reflection throughout the theatrical community and beyond, but hopefully the actions of one scared, demented individual will not bring ridiculous repercussions like metal-detectors in every theatre, however, it certainly should lead to tighter security (door alarms, security cameras) and making sure multiplexes and movie houses are locked down appropriately.  

In light of what happened, everyone could use a bit of laughter in their lives, so it’s a bit of serendipity that Fox’s R-rated sci-fi comedy “The Watch” lands in 3,000+ theatres this weekend. Written by Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, directed by Lonely Planet and SNL alum Akiva Schaffer, and starring comedy heavyweights Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Jonah Hill, there is no reason this shouldn’t see upwards of $30 million. We haven’t seen a comedy outside of “Ted” approach $100 million this summer, so this may be just the ticket.

It’s doubtful “The Watch” will see the massive numbers “Ted” did throughout its run; however, it probably has the best shot of any comedy left on the summer schedule of breaking out. Sorry, “The Campaign,” your political schtick already looks like Mitt Romney’s offshore accounts: suspect at best.

Also arriving in multiplexes this weekend is Summit’s fourquel, “Step Up: Revolution.” Is it really considered a revolution just because it’s set in Florida this time? I remember when “Revenge of the Nerds” went to Fort Lauderdale for their sequel, “Nerds in Paradise,” and also when “Police Academy” decided to travel to the sunshine state for their fifth flick, “Assignment: Miami Beach,” and those were both pretty much the low point of their respective franchises. I mean, except for Booger meeting his zen master. That in itself was a classic moment in cinematic history.  

Nasal notoriety aside, “Step Up 4” has even been referred to with the subtitle, “Miami Heat,” but I assure you LeBron and the rest of the NBA champs do not appear in this film, and neither does Channing Tatum, who had a break out performance in the first one that jumpstarted his career.

Without the distribution muscle of Disney, it’s doubtful this fourth incarnation will offer up any new moves we haven’t seen before. And, sadly for Summit, grosses have been steadily shuffling downward for this franchise, even with the addition of 3D the last go-round (it returns for an encore 3D performance, don’t worry). Expect $13 million in 2,500+ theatres…unless Tatum decides to return to work as the pre-show entertainment.  Hey, maybe he can combine the franchises for “Magic Mike 2: Step Up, Strip Down.”

In limited release, Fox Searchlight released “Ruby Sparks” on Wednesday and it grossed an estimated $20,000 on 13 screens. Certainly not the debut FSL was hoping for from the directing duo that brought the indie studio one of their biggest hits, “Little Miss Sunshine.”

Say, do you like canoes and squealing like a pig? No, I’m not talking about renting “Deliverance” this weekend (although that’s not a bad idea), but checking out Drafthouse Films’ Danish import, “Klown,” opening exclusively in NY, LA, and Austin. It’s as disturbing as it is funny…the way good comedy should be. Warner Bros. has the remake rights with Danny McBride attached to star and Todd Phillips as a possible producer/director.   

Weekend estimates:

1. THE DARK KNIGHT RISES - $81M

2. THE WATCH - $28M

3. STEP UP: REVOLUTION - $13M

4. ICE AGE 4 - $12M

5. THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN - $6M

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